Shields, R and Paulson, J (2015) '"Development in reverse"? A longitudinal analysis of armed conflict, fragility and school enrolment.' Comparative Education, 51 (2). pp. 212-230. ISSN 0305-0068

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This paper presents a longitudinal analysis of cross-national data on armed conflict, state fragility, and enrolment in primary and secondary schooling. The study is motivated by questions raised in the 2012 Human Security Report, which challenges the widely-held assumption that conflict is necessarily detrimental to educational outcomes. We use multilevel modelling techniques to determine how conflict and fragility relate to changes in enrolment. Our findings suggest that growth in enrolment is significantly lower in conflict affected countries but that the effect is dependent upon countries’ overall enrolment level. However, when we control for fragility, the effect of conflict is not significant, which is consistent with the Human Security Report’s suggestion that fragility is an underlying cause of both conflict and poor educational outcomes. We conclude by discussing the relevance of our findings and challenges for future research on fragility and education.

Item Type: Article

First published online on 3 September 2014 ahead of its inclusion in a specific issue.

Keywords: International Education; Development; Conflict; Fragility; Educational Policy; Enrolment
Subjects: H Social Sciences > H Social Sciences (General)
J Political Science > JZ International relations
L Education > L Education (General)
Divisions: Institute for Education
Date Deposited: 30 Jan 2015 15:37
Last Modified: 09 Jan 2017 11:28
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