Playing the future: insights from wargaming cyber conflict

Curry, J ORCID: 0000-0003-2872-0678 (2026) 'Playing the future: insights from wargaming cyber conflict.' The Cyber Defence Review, 11 (2).

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Abstract

This piece explores how cyber warfare is evolving by combining professional wargaming with analysis of real‑world cyber incidents. It highlights the lessons that have emerged from iterations of wargames about actual and potential cyber conflicts. As cyber conflict lacks the rich campaign histories available for conventional war, repeated wargaming of past operations is used to understand attacker intent, capability, and effectiveness. Several consistent patterns emerge across two decades of state‑level cyber activity, including strategic signaling, integration with wider political and military campaigns, a focus on critical infrastructure, and the concentration of major cyber operations at the start of conflict. Looking ahead, the paper argues that while cyber capabilities are becoming more significant, they will take decades—and multiple major conflicts—to mature into a dominant class of weapons. A key strategic challenge is mobilizing national cyber power, particularly given the concentration of expertise in the private sector. Effective mobilization requires pre‑planned public–private integration, cyber reserves, and extensive peacetime wargaming. It concludes that despite technological advances, human expertise remains the decisive factor in cyber conflict; wargaming is an essential part of developing these people.

Item Type:	Article
UN SDGs:	Goal 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
Keywords:	cyber warfare, cyber operations, state-sponsored cyber activity, wargaming, cyber wargaming, strategic cyber trends, national cyber power
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science U Military Science > U Military Science (General)
Divisions:	Bath School of Design
Date Deposited:	11 Jun 2026 11:15
Last Modified:	11 Jun 2026 11:15
ISSN:	2474-2139
URN:	https://researchspace.bathspa.ac.uk/id/eprint/17824

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